South African Politics

South Africa is holding its presidential elections next year. This is probably of less importance to most of the world then the most recent one held in the United States, but it holds the potential to be one of the most significant held in Africa in recent years. It’s an unfortunate reality that liberation movements in Africa have often come to resemble the worst aspects of the governments that they sort to replace. Often, the promise rapidly degenerates into dictatorship and one party rule. One just needs to look north of the Limpopo river to see a textbook example in the rule of Zanu-PF and Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe. South Africa has, thus far, managed to escape the threat of an elder statesman hanging onto power through the decision of Nelson Mandela to serve only one term as President, and then the recent recalling of Thabo Mbeki as President. Currently we have an acting President, Kgalema Motlanthe, with the likelihood that he will be replaced by the President of the ANC, Jacob Zuma.

However, it looked like South Africa would be governed by the ANC for the foreseeable future. Having one political party dominate for an extended period of time is not healthy for any democracy – hence the strong likelihood that the Labour government in the UK will be replaced by a Conservative government after their next election. The chief opposition party in SA, the Democratic Alliance (DA), is still predominately white, and, realistically speaking, will never be a viable opposition party in the sense of being able to beat the ANC in an election. However, the recent recall of Thabo Mbeki has contributed towards the formation of a new party, COPE, mainly comprised of disenchanted former ANC heavyweights, led by the former premier of Gauteng, Tokyo Sekwale, and Mosioua Lekota, the former Minister of Defence. The big question is whether they will be able to pull sufficient votes from ANC supporters in rural areas to put a dent in the ANC majority. It is highly unlikely that they will be able to do more then that, however, reducing the ANC majority will send a message to the ANC that they are not entitled to be in power for ever. The big losers in my opinion however are likely to be the DA. There are a significant proportion of voters who will vote for a party other then the ANC in order to have some semblance of opposition. A predominately white party will inevitably become nothing more then a curiosity in South Africa. A strong opposition party in South Africa is a necessity if South Africa is to survive as a democracy. It remains to be seen if COPE can become that.